Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – February 19, 2026

This Austin real estate market update for Thursday, February 19, 2026 reflects a market that is stabilizing in structure but still working through excess supply and cautious demand. The data in today’s Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing confirms that inventory remains elevated, price reductions are widespread, and absorption levels are well below historical norms. At the same time, sales activity is not collapsing. It is simply operating at a slower, more disciplined pace.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Thursday, February 19, 2026.

Active residential listings currently sit at 13,272. That is up 12.3 percent compared to this time last year, when there were 11,814 active listings. While this is well below the previous high of 18,146 reached in late June 2025, it still represents a meaningful supply load for the Austin housing market. Of those 13,272 listings, 4,020 are new construction and 9,252 are resale. Nearly half of all active listings, 48.7 percent, have had at least one price drop. That statistic alone tells you that pricing discipline is still lagging behind market reality in many segments.

New listings from January through February total 6,216. That is down 20.5 percent year over year, yet still 1.5 percent above the long term average. Sellers are pulling back compared to last year, but they are not retreating entirely. On the demand side, pending listings are slightly higher than last year. There are currently 4,068 pending contracts compared to 3,951 a year ago, a 3.0 percent increase. However, cumulative pending contracts from January through February are 5,174, which is down 21.5 percent year over year and 13.8 percent below the historical average. This gap between supply and demand is critical for understanding the Austin real estate forecast.

The Activity Index, which measures pendings as a percentage of active listings, is now 23.5 percent compared to 25.1 percent last year. That is a 6.4 percent relative decline. New construction is outperforming resale, with an Activity Index of 28.76 percent versus 20.90 percent for resale. When we break this down by market phase, much of the resale market sits in the softening category between 20 and 25 percent. Several cities are even drifting into the contraction zone below 20 percent. This is not crisis territory, but it is clearly not expansion.

Another important metric is the new listing to pending ratio. For the month, it stands at 0.67. Year to date, the ratio is 0.71, compared to a 25 year average of 0.82. In simple terms, more homes are coming to market than going under contract. Year to date, there is a difference of 1,042 more new listings than pendings. When this ratio remains below the long term average, inventory pressure tends to build. That has direct implications for the Austin housing forecast over the next several quarters.

Months of inventory now stands at 4.71 compared to 4.11 last year, a 14.5 percent increase. On a resale only basis, much of the region sits in what we classify as the neutral to buyer advantage range. Markets under four months of inventory are typically seller acceleration zones. Markets above six months shift toward buyer control. Austin as a whole is hovering near the middle, but several submarkets are firmly in buyer advantage territory. Year over year, months of inventory in the City of Austin is down slightly by 1.1 percent, but compared to two years ago it is up 12.1 percent. This reinforces the idea that while supply has moderated from peak 2025 levels, it remains structurally elevated.

Sales activity provides additional context. There were 1,910 homes sold in February. Cumulative sold properties from January through February total 3,586. That is down 7.5 percent year over year, yet still 8.0 percent above the long term average. So while volume is weaker than last year, it is not historically depressed. However, when adjusted per 100,000 population, sales are down 9.4 percent year over year and 22.9 percent below average. When measured per 1,000 Realtors, sales are down 1.1 percent year over year and 20.0 percent below average. In other words, the pie is smaller relative to the size of the industry.

Pricing continues to reflect the correction that began after the May 2022 peak. The average sold price in February is $552,270. The median sold price is $432,000. From the May 2022 median peak of $550,000, today’s median represents a 21.45 percent decline, or about $118,000. The average price has fallen 19.01 percent from its peak of $681,939. These are not small adjustments. They represent a meaningful reset in the Austin housing market.

When we compare median prices to 36 months prior, the change is currently negative 0.69 percent. That tells us the market has essentially retraced three years of appreciation. If we assume that the current median of $432,000 represents a cyclical bottom and apply the 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.620 percent, it would take approximately 66 months, or until July 2031, to return to the prior peak level. This projection is not a prediction. It is a mathematical illustration of what steady historical growth would imply under stable conditions.

There is also divergence within the market. In the bottom 25th percentile, prices are down 4.09 percent year over year and price per square foot is down 6.07 percent. In the top 25th percentile, prices are up 2.56 percent year over year, although price per square foot is essentially flat. Six cities are up year over year in median price, while twenty four are down. The Home Value Index shows that 76.7 percent of cities are still considered overvalued relative to long term norms, 20.0 percent are fairly valued, and 6.7 percent are undervalued. This reinforces the idea that the correction is uneven and value driven.

The absorption rate, calculated as sold divided by active listings, is 14.93 percent. The historical average is 31.54 percent. The Market Flow Score, which combines several turnover metrics into a single index, is 3.21 compared to a historical average of 6.58. Both metrics point to slower turnover and lower market efficiency than normal. Buyers are active, but they are selective. Sellers who overprice are sitting.

For buyers, this Austin market update signals opportunity. With nearly half of listings having reduced price and months of inventory near five months, there is room to negotiate. For sellers, the message is clear. Pricing strategy matters more than ever. For investors, cash flow and long term fundamentals should drive decisions, not short term appreciation assumptions. For real estate agents, understanding micro markets, absorption levels, and price sensitivity is essential.

The Austin real estate forecast from this data suggests continued stabilization rather than rapid recovery. Inventory is off its 2025 highs but remains elevated. Demand is steady but below historical norms. Prices have corrected substantially from peak and are now moving sideways. This is what normalization looks like after an overheated cycle.

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Austin Real Estate Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Austin housing market still declining in 2026?

The data shows that prices have already experienced a significant correction from the May 2022 peak. The median sold price is down 21.45 percent from that peak, but recent comparisons to 36 months prior show only a slight negative change of 0.69 percent. This suggests the market is no longer in a steep decline phase but is instead stabilizing. Inventory remains elevated and absorption is below historical averages, so short term appreciation is likely to remain modest. The Austin real estate forecast points more toward sideways movement than sharp drops at this stage.

Is now a good time to buy in Austin?

With 13,272 active listings and 48.7 percent having at least one price drop, buyers have leverage that did not exist in 2021 or early 2022. Months of inventory at 4.71 indicates a neutral to slight buyer advantage in many submarkets. Mortgage rates and personal financial readiness still matter, but from a supply demand standpoint, conditions are more balanced. Buyers who focus on value, negotiate strategically, and plan for long term ownership may find attractive opportunities. This Austin market update supports a disciplined buying approach rather than a rushed one.

How much have Austin home prices fallen from the peak?

The median sold price peaked at $550,000 in May 2022 and is now $432,000. That represents a decline of approximately $118,000, or 21.45 percent. The average sold price has declined 19.01 percent from its peak. These corrections have brought valuations closer to historical norms. However, the Home Value Index still shows that many cities remain overvalued relative to long term trends.

What does months of inventory tell us about Austin housing?

Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell current listings at the current sales pace. At 4.71 months, the Austin housing market is no longer in a tight seller acceleration phase. It is closer to a balanced environment, with some submarkets leaning toward buyer advantage. When months of inventory rises, sellers must compete more aggressively on price and condition. This metric is central to any serious Austin housing forecast.

When could Austin home prices return to their 2022 peak?

Using the 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.620 percent, it would take approximately 66 months from a median of $432,000 to reach the prior peak level. That timeline extends to around July 2031. This assumes steady historical growth and no additional shocks to supply or demand. It is not a guarantee, but it provides a framework for long term expectations. For investors and homeowners, patience and realistic appreciation assumptions are key.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.