The Austin housing market is showing signs of stabilization, but buyers and sellers remain in a cautious standoff as supply stays elevated and pricing holds well below peak levels.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 18, 2025.​

The number of active residential listings in Austin stands at 16,878, up 14.8% compared to the same time last year when inventory was 14,701. Although today’s figure is below the June 2025 high of 18,146, it still represents one of the largest inventories seen in recent years. This level of supply is giving buyers more options and more leverage in negotiations. At the same time, more than 58.1% of all listings have had at least one price reduction, reflecting ongoing seller adjustments to meet the market.

Pending contracts highlight another trend. There are 4,087 pending sales, which is down 1.9% compared to last year’s 4,167. Cumulatively, from January through September, pending contracts total 32,810, down 6.3% year-over-year. Despite the dip, this number still sits slightly above the long-term average, suggesting the market is active but leaning toward slower absorption compared to the demand spikes of prior years.

The Activity Index, which measures the percentage of active listings that go under contract each month, is at 19.5%, compared to 22.1% a year ago. That represents an 11.7% decline in activity. For reference, new construction absorption is currently higher than resales, with 27.4% of new homes under contract compared to just 16.4% of resale listings. This shows how builders, with the ability to offer incentives and rate buy-downs, continue to capture demand that might otherwise flow into the resale market.

Another key measure, the Monthly New Listing-to-Pending Ratio, is at 0.63. This means that for every new pending sale, there are more than one and a half new listings entering the market. The year-to-date ratio is 0.70, still below the 25-year average of 0.82, reflecting a market where supply continues to outpace demand. As a result, the cumulative gap between new listings and pending sales is over 7,100 units so far in 2025.

The Months of Inventory (MOI) metric, which shows how long it would take to sell all active homes at the current pace, is now at 5.97 months, up from 5.24 months a year ago. That 14% increase in supply moves Austin further into buyer-friendly territory. Historically, 6 months of inventory is considered a balanced market, and Austin is now hovering right at that threshold. Some suburban markets are seeing double-digit inventory levels, while the city of Austin itself is sitting near 5.34 months, slightly higher than last year.

Sales activity reflects these conditions. In September, 2,343 homes sold, bringing the year-to-date total to 22,898, which is down 4.2% compared to last year. On a population-adjusted basis, sales density has slipped 6.5% year-over-year and remains more than 22% below the long-term average. This decline points to a market where demand is present but not as strong as historical norms.

Pricing remains well below the May 2022 peak. The average sold price in September was $565,272, down 17.1% from the $681,939 peak, while the median price is $435,000, a 20.9% decline from the peak of $550,000. When compared to where prices stood three years ago, the median remains 7.5% lower. Based on Austin’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate of 4.838%, if today’s $435,000 represents the bottom of the cycle, it would take approximately 63 months (until late 2030) for the median to climb back to $551,769, assuming steady long-term appreciation.

The price distribution shows an interesting split. The bottom 25% of homes are down 4.5% year-over-year, while the top 25% of homes are up 5.25%. This gap underscores how affordability challenges weigh most heavily on entry-level buyers, while higher-end properties have been more resilient, particularly in desirable locations.

Market health indicators also confirm the slower pace. The Absorption Rate, which measures how quickly inventory is selling, is just 17.5%, far below the long-term average of 31.8%. Similarly, the Market Flow Score (MFS) is at 5.54, compared to a historical average of 6.6. These metrics signal a market with plenty of options for buyers, more negotiating room, and limited urgency.

For buyers, this environment offers time, selection, and leverage. Sellers, however, must stay realistic. The fact that nearly six in ten listings have had price reductions shows that initial pricing strategies are not aligning with what buyers are willing to pay. Agents need to guide sellers with data-driven advice, encouraging price positioning that attracts offers rather than sitting stale. Investors may find opportunities in resale properties that lag builder competition, though they should factor in the slower pace of absorption and longer hold times before expecting appreciation recovery.

Overall, the Austin housing market today reflects a clear reset phase. Inventory is elevated, demand is steady but not accelerating, and prices remain well below the highs of just three years ago. The numbers point to a balanced-to-buyer-leaning market that will require patience and precision from all participants.